Textbook probability is static: a fixed deck, a fixed answer. These are the same mathematics running in real time on a shrinking, changing sample space — conditional probability, expected value and variance where you can watch the distribution move. Plus a few other things that don’t fit anywhere else.
Independent trials, and why no amount of history changes the next spin — the gambler’s fallacy shown with the arithmetic in front of you.
🃏A running estimator over a shrinking sample space: Hi-Lo as a sufficient statistic, and true count as the correction that makes it comparable across shoe depths.
🥇The exact conditional distribution, not an approximation of it — every decision solved from the cards that remain. Compare it against Hi-Lo to see what the estimator throws away.
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